Why the Miami Dolphins are NOT Super Bowl Contenders

Through Week 6, the Miami Dolphins have been consistently ranked in the top five of many pundit's power rankings. Their performance has been stellar thus far, but it won't translate to playoff success.

Don't drink the Kool-Aid. The Dolphins defense stinks. What’s the saying? Defense wins championships? Obviously elite offenses can carry a bad defense. It happens, but not as much as you would think.

The five worst defenses to win the Super Bowl are: the 2011 Giants (25th), 2006 Colts (23rd), 2009 Saints (20th), 2007 Giants (17th), and the 2022 Chiefs (16th).

Where are the Dolphins ranked right now? 20th overall. Worse than the Chiefs last year and the miracle Giants team that beat Tom Brady's undefeated Patriots.

The 2006 Colts were solid in yards per game (12th for 332.2), but 23rd in PPG giving up 22.5 and dead last in 3rd down percentage at 47%.

Super Bowl XLIV is remembered for Sean Payton’s onside kick to start the 2nd half and Peyton Manning’s pick-six to seal the game at 31-17. What isn’t remembered is that the defense gave up 357.8 yards a game ranked 25th and 21.3 PPG which was 20th.

Patrick Mahomes had to erase poor defensive performances from a disappointing Chiefs unit giving up 21.7 PPG, and a 3rd down percentage at 38.3 ranked 20th.

The two Giants teams allowed 21.9 PPG in 2007 and 25 PPG in 2011. New York’s 17th ranking in 2007 was misleading because their PPG was really their lone flaw, as they were towards the top in most other categories. That is bad for the Dolphins.

Miami currently sits in the bottom third of NFL defenses in every major category. They are 20th in passing, 20th in rushing, 26th scoring defense giving up 26 PPG, tied for the 5th worst red zone defense allowing a touchdown in exactly 2/3 of red zone visits, and 20th in 3rd down defense giving up a 41% conversion rate.

What makes this more alarming is that they have been bad against some of the worst teams in football. They’ve beaten the two worst offenses in the NFL in the 32nd ranked Patriots scoring only 11 PPG and the 31st New York Giants scoring only 12.4 PPG. They’ve also beaten the 25th ranked Panthers in Week 6 who score only 18.2 a game.

Their other two wins are against the dysfunctional 1-5 Broncos and the 2-3 Chargers who are incapable of getting out of their own way with Brandon Staley at the helm.

When it was time to play a good team, Vic Fangio’s defense was embarrassed in Miami’s only loss against the Bills (3rd) offense, getting beaten soundly.

Can Tua Tagovailoa win a championship with a bad defense? The only quarterbacks to do it are all either in the hall of fame or will be, which includes both Manning brothers, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes.

Having an unbelievable top ranked offense that scores a league best 36.2 PPG certainly masks defensive flaws, but tighter games against better teams will put far more strain on their defense that needs to improve. Can Tua win a shootout against Mahomes, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow? Can he outpace a team like the 49ers or Eagles who are near the top in both offense and defense? These are questions that can be answered in the next few weeks.

Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins have massive tests in front of a national audience on Sunday Night Football this week in Philadelphia and in the international game in Germany against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in two weeks. These two games will either expose Miami as fraudulent or reveal a real contender ready to take over the AFC, but history leans towards the former.