Running Away with the Super Bowl: 49ers Best Bet to Beat Chiefs

Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense vs Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense will prove to be the biggest matchup in Super Bowl LVIII. 

Shanahan's offense typically runs 21 personnel, lining up in this formation nearly a third of the time. This means that they have two running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Juszczyk, one tight end, George Kittle, and two wide receivers, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, along with five offensive lineman and the quarterback. 

The key for San Francisco may be to lean on 22 personnel more often than their league leading 10.9% clip. 22 personnel features two tight ends, two running backs and one receiver. That may seem strange to take one of their star receivers off the field more often, considering the pass catching unit in San Francisco is the gold standard in the NFL. 

The Chiefs defense has used their base defense to combat 22 personnel, fielding four defensive lineman, three linebackers, and four defensive backs three quarters of the time. This is not how Kansas City wants to line up. The secondary is the best unit on the Chiefs defense, and they want them to flood the middle of the field to break up passes. They were able to get the Ravens to abandon the run and let their defensive backs suffocate Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken's offense.

Not only would 22 personnel force the Chiefs to play in formations that abandons their defensive strengths, the 49ers would be twisting their arm into a coverage they struggle with. In their base coverage, the Chiefs are 29th in EPA per play, an advanced metric quantifying the number of expected points that a play adds or loses. 

Shanahan also loves disguising plays, calling plays that may look identical pre snap but have drastically different results. Mina Kimes pointed out some excellent stats about the Chiefs defense against the run. San Francisco loves running the ball from under center, and the Chiefs are 25th at stopping under center runs. The 49ers love using zone runs. The Chiefs allow the 2nd most yards per attempt on zone runs. 

Another bad stat for the Chiefs defense that matches up poorly against San Francisco: the Chiefs have allowed 1.9 yards per rush after contact this season which is 30th in the NFL.

Shanahan loves games where he can dare a defense to stop the run and they can’t. Just look at the 2019 NFC Championship Game, he let Raheem Mostert take over the game, running for 220 yards on 29 carries for 4 touchdowns while Jimmy Garoppolo only threw 8 passes. The 49ers running game is even better than when these two teams faced in Super Bowl LIV, thanks in large part to Christian McCaffrey.

It would be presumptuous to assume McCaffrey will put up Mostert's stat line, even though he is the best running back in the NFL this year and in recent memory, but it wouldn’t be crazy for the NFL rushing champion to eclipse 100 yards considering he did it more than any other running back this season. 

In fact, the 49ers may not even need 100 yards or more. San Francisco is 12-1 this season when McCaffrey rushes for over 75 yards, their one loss coming on Christmas where the offense had 5 turnovers. When McCaffrey gets 15 or more carries, the 49ers are 13-0. Expect Shanahan to figure out how to get McCaffrey, the most dynamic player in the game, more than 75 yards and 15 carries.

Simply put, Steve Spagnuolo will be forced to use his least effective defensive front, be asked to limit the best running back in football to under 75 yards and 15 carries, and prevent the 49ers from scoring 20 points, who are 20-0 in the Brock Purdy era when scoring 20+ points, in order for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

This will be a vintage Kyle Shanahan game. Run the ball early and often, have the defense bend but not break, and let the quarterback find the YAC Bros in open space to make magic happen in the open field. If Shanahan can do that, the 49ers will raise their sixth Lombardi trophy and party on Market Street for a parade in downtown San Francisco.