Ravens vs Texans: NFL Divisional Round Prediction

In the opening game of the Divisional Round, the Baltimore Ravens will host the Houston Texans for the right to play in the AFC Championship Game. This game should be fascinating, pitting two awesome quarterbacks against each other with different styles. 

In the visiting corner is CJ Stroud, a rookie who already established himself as one of the best pocket passers in football by shredding an awesome Browns defense in a statement win. The hosting quarterback is former MVP Lamar Jackson, this years MVP frontrunner who uniquely dominates teams with his legs as often as his arm.  

The Ravens are fresh off a bye week after winning the number one seed in the AFC. In the regular season, Baltimore boasted the league’s best defense giving up only 16.5 points a game and are tied for first with the most takeaways per game. This defense paired with Todd Monken’s new look Ravens offense run by a player as talented as Lamar has made Baltimore a grueling matchup for anyone. 

The scrappy Texans win utilizing a DeMeco Ryans led defense and Stroud led offense that successfully turned a 3-13-1 team a year ago into a division champion with a playoff win under their belt. That combo struggled through growing pains, but found their identity over the course of the season. Balanced distribution on offense with big play potential, and a defense that plays above their talent through scheme and toughness. Stroud outplayed Trevor Lawrence helping the Texans sweep the preseason AFC South favorite Jaguars, and won a must win game against the Colts to steal the division crown amid Jacksonville’s collapse. Stroud looks like he could throw an egg fifty yards into a nest without cracking the shell. He is a hell of a passer.

Vegas has the Ravens as a 9.5 point favorite entering the game, but maybe they aren’t giving Houston a chance. Contextually, past performance doesn’t always indicate of future success or failure, but Lamar is 1-3 in his playoff career. It needs to be discussed.

In his first career playoff game in 2018, Lamar lost to the Chargers at home on Wild Card Weekend 23-17. The Chargers led 23-3 with under ten minutes in the fourth quarter.

In playoff game number two, the Ravens lost in the same position this years team sits in now, in the Divisional Round after securing the one seed. The Ravens trailed 28-6 early in the fourth quarter in their 2020 loss to an inferior Titans team.

In 2021, Lamar notches his first win in a rematch in Tennessee 20-13. He did most of his damage on the ground, eclipsing a hundred yards on 16 carries and a touchdown. The next week in the Divisional Round, Buffalo shut him out in the second half winning 17-3. 

After a wonderful regular season campaign that leaves him as the MVP favorite, and after beating the NFC’s top seeded 49ers in San Francisco on Christmas, this is the most pressure Lamar has had to deliver a title. If he loses this game, he will get crushed. 

PREDICTION

The Ravens have shown a tendency to trail early and press offensively in the Lamar Jackson era, and they could trail early again. Stroud lit the NFL world on fire by rising to the occasion in his first playoff game hanging 45 points on one of the league’s best defenses, and he is the overwhelming favorite to win OROY after ascending into the top tier of NFL quarterbacks. History will repeat itself in Baltimore when the Ravens trail early in this game, shaking off some rust from multiple weeks of rest. 

The Texans are going to win this game, and it’s because the Baltimore defense is 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions rate. Great quarterbacks win on the money downs and Stroud is a great quarterback. Houston will convert third downs early and make the Ravens come from behind. 

The Ravens will press, not operating at the optimal level they have all season. Baltimore will be punting but Lamar can only be limited, never fully stopped on the ground and that will help the Ravens keep it close. Houston will nurse a lead with Baltimore right on their tails. Stroud is slinging the ball, most responsible for their lead three quarters in. 

In the fourth quarter, Stroud will hand the baton to Ryans, who will step up to perfectly scheme Lamar and the Ravens forcing punts. Then Stroud will score again, and the Texans defense will continue to give Lamar enough trouble with too little time left to fully comeback. The stars of the game are Stroud and DeMeco Ryans’ defensive game plan that does just enough. 

Final Score: 27-23 Houston goes to the AFC Championship.