Quarterback Award? Breaking Down the MVP Path for the Two Top QB's and Position Players

The NFL MVP isn’t always awarded to the most valuable player. Usually it is a masturbatory award given to the best quarterback, a position the NFL loves to label as the most important position in sports.

This year, there has been solid quarterback play, but overall there hasn’t been a quarterback that has lit up the NFL the way say defending MVP Pat Mahomes did last year or others have in years past.

Entering Week 15, Dak Prescott soared to the top of the Vegas odds to win MVP after beating the Philadelphia Eagles. Dak is playing some of the best football of his career, but his positioning at the top is odd. It feels like the national media is moving goal posts for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who garners skepticism because of his Mr. Irrelevant draft selection.

Purdy has a stronger resume this season than Dak. Purdy has beaten the check down merchant allegations bestowed upon him by NFL twitter, putting up a higher quarterback rating, higher completions percentage, higher yards per attempt, and more pass yards than the current MVP favorite. Dak does have the edge in throwing one less interception and three more touchdowns, though. Seems somewhat even if you stopped there, but Purdy's superior resume becomes glaringly obvious when you factor in that the 49ers have beaten more good teams than the Cowboys, have the number one seed in the NFC playoff picture, and demolished the Cowboys 42-10 in a head to head matchup in Week 5.

In that game, Dak had 153 yards on a 58.3% completion percentage, one touchdown and three interceptions. Purdy completed 70.8% of his passes on the same amount of attempts as Dak for 252 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Right now, Purdy deserves the clear edge.

But what if this is a year where the MVP isn’t a quarterback award? What if a different position wins the award for the first time since 2012 when Adrian Peterson was just nine yards short of breaking Eric Dickerson’s all-time single season rushing record.

If the voters deem the resume of Purdy or Prescott not quite good enough, which absolutely could happen, then the award really comes down to two players: Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey with a massive advantage for Tyreek Hill.

Hill is on pace to become the NFL's first 2,000 yard receiver, shattering the single season receiving yard record. If he hits that magic number, the MVP should be on his doorstep. That’s what non quarterbacks have to do if they want to be crowned MVP. Break records. Tua Tagovailoa has been stellar this season, but the Dolphins would crumble if Tyreek were to miss any games. Hill has more receiving yards than the New York Giants entire roster. He is dominating the wide receiver position in ways that warrant comparisons to names like Rice, Moss, and Calvin Johnson. For me it's simple equation. 2,000 yards = MVP.

BUT, if Tyreek Hill falls short of 2,000 receiving yards, here is what Christian McCaffrey would need to earn the MVP. I had just mentioned that breaking records is what a non quarterback needs to win MVP, and McCaffrey does have that record in his pocket. Sort of.

Does anyone remember that he tied Hall of Famer Lenny Moore for the most consecutive games with a touchdown? He tied a record that spans 17 games. Check. He is currently on pace to rush for a 49ers franchise record 1,539 rushing yards, while also becoming the NFL’s rushing champion for the first time. Adding his receiving yards, that would put McCaffrey over 2,000 yards from scrimmage. If McCaffrey can beat out Raheem Mostert, his only competition for leading the NFL in touchdowns, then that's another category where CMC is on top. Scrimmage yards, rushing champion, touchdown leader, with a tied NFL record.

Not quite as impressive as Tyreek getting 2,000 just receiving but McCaffrey can win the MVP if he falls short of 2,000 yards and the quarterbacks mentioned don't do enough.

Overall, I think Tyreek is most deserving. The quarterbacks have been solid, not unfathomably dominant. I think that Hill and McCaffrey have completely changed the franchises they joined, elevating each respecting offense to heights it could never dream of without them. Those two players are the most valuable on their teams, and make the offense purr.

If the season ended today, I would crown Tyreek Hill the NFL MVP.