NFL Playoff Preview: Predicting Wild Card Weekend

18 weeks are down, and now after a carasel of MVP candidates, backup quarterbacks galore, and some of the most anticipated Wild Card matchups in recent memory, the NFL Playoffs are among us. 

This season’s provided many twists and turns including Joe Flacco’s return, Patrick Mahomes’ offense failing him every week, and the Eagles self destructing at the worst moments. 

The two teams that earned a byeby finishing at the top of their conferences were the Baltimore Ravens who boast the NFL’s best record at 13-4 and the San Francisco 49ers who finished atop the NFC at 12-5, so that’s the last they’ll be mentioned until the Divisional Round. Let’s breakdown what should be a riveting first round of the playoffs. 

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans 

This game is the unlikely outcomes bowl. The Jaguars who were favorites and the leaders in the AFC South all season choked, giving the Houston Texans the opportunity to steal the division behind the performance of their rookie head coach and quarterback.

After finishing with the abysmal 3-13-1 record, the Texans struck gold signing former 49ers defense coordinator Demeco Ryans and drafting Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud. Now, after Stroud and the Texans swept Lawrence and the defending AFC South champs, there’s little talk about how bad the Texan roster was just a year ago, or how Stroud scored dead last in a cognition test among draft eligible quarterbacks. The rookie head coach and quarterback tandem in Houston looks poised to establish itself as a dominant force in the division for the foreseeable future. Stroud is a star, and the Texans are a group with heart that fights and grinds opponents out. 

The Browns defense shined in the first month of the season, giving up only 1,002 yards in their first five games which was the best by a defense in fifty years. As the season ends, the Browns defense still is a top unit in the NFL, but they needed a spark offensively to prevent their defense from burning out too soon by being left out on the field too long. Enter Joe Flacco. Yes, the formerly “elite” debate spurring quarterback who many thought the game had passed by. The former Super Bowl winning quarterback who was dropped by Baltimore for Lamar Jackson, dropped by Denver, and dropped by the Jets before the Browns picked him up due to Deshaun Watson having a season ending injury and no good options with their backups. 

Since being thrown into the starting job, Flacco has enjoyed a career resurgence, becoming the first Browns quarterback to ever have four straight games of 300+ passing yards. With Flacco at quarterback, the Browns average 312 pass yards a game compared to 181.2 without him. They score 28.6 points with him and 21.7 without. Overnight, miraculously, Flacco is playing like he did in another magical season that ended with his Ravens beating the 49ers in the Super Bowl. 

The Browns are a force to be reckoned with and a legitimate contender to win it all. With a defense that is the hardest to move the ball against and an offense that doesn’t make mistakes while pushing the ball down the field routinely, the Browns are a nightmare. On their resume, they beat the NFC’s best 49ers, split with the NFL’s best Ravens, and they already beat the Texans 36-22. However, Houston was without their best player in Stroud, so this rematch should be a lot tighter. 

Prediction: Historically speaking, Flacco is 5-0 in the Wild Card round. Rookies usually struggle in their first playoff game. The Texans have enjoyed a wild ride and have a bright future ahead of them, but that is why they will lose. Their future is brighter than the present. Cleveland will simply be too much to handle as their elite defense who gives up the least passing yards per game will limit Stroud’s stellar play, and Flacco will be able to put up enough points on a Texans defense that is in the bottom half of passing yards a game and in the middle in terms of rushing yards a game. Final score: 31-20, Browns end the Texans fairytale season. 

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs:

The Kansas City Chiefs, the defending champs, have been a shell of themselves this season. Still good enough to win a lackluster AFC West, they weren’t good enough to earn a bye in the playoffs for the first time since Mahomes became the starter. Travis Kelce seems more swept up in his podcast and Taylor Swift romance than playing championship football, as his production dropped from his Hall of Fame standards. 

Under 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015, lowest touchdown total since 2019, lowest yard per reception in his career, and the lowest yards per target of his career. 

The Chiefs lead the NFL with 40 drops this season. Their offense is 3rd worst in points per second half at only 7.5. Points per game is mediocre, 15th at 21.8. Outside of Kelce, the receivers have been awful. Kadarious Toney has been a weekly meme contributing more turnovers than scores, Skyy Moore has been invisible, Marquez Valdez-Scantling has dropped several crucial passes that could have Kansas City at a higher seed. 

The Chiefs look vulnerable, which could mark the first time in the Mahomes era where Kansas City could miss the AFC Championship. What is keeping the Chiefs season alive is ironically their defense, which has had to be carried by Mahomes’ wizard like play for the past several years. This year, they are doing the carrying, lifting the team to the #3 seed despite an awful offensive group that can’t score in the second half. 

Even with all the broken parts on the Chiefs offense, the Dolphins will still probably find a way to lose this game. Miami is a little brother franchise, as they are 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Their lone win was a 22-20 win over the Cowboys who also can’t beat any teams with a winning record. Someone had to win that game, and it happened to be Miami. 

Despite having the top scoring offense, it seems as though they blow out bad teams and struggle against good ones. Dropping three of their last five, they topped out at 22 points against good teams. 22 against the Cowboys in their win, but a poor showing in a 56-19 thrashing at the hands of the Ravens and only 14 against the Bills in a game for the division crown. 

In order to beat the Chiefs the Dolphins will need to have their mediocre defense who just lost their three top pass rushers perform and utilize Tyreek Hill, who makes his first return to Arrowhead since being traded, but that will be almost impossible to do with heavy snow creating roadblocks for the NFL’s fastest offense in a game that will be -1 degrees at kickoff. Windchill will make it feel like -21. 

We’ve seen Tua be put in win now situations, and he hasn’t delivered. That opportunity probably won’t be either against the Chiefs in a game that will be won on the ground. Can Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane lead Miami to victory?

For Dolphins fans, this game will probably be a nightmare so what is there to be excited about? Well, the Dolphins are 3-0 over the Chiefs in the playoffs all-time. 

Prediction: 24-17 Chiefs win a rushing clinic with very few passes. Dolphins try to open passing game late out of desperation and turn it over, sending Kansas City to the Divisional Round. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills:

In a Wild Card weekend that has story lines galore, this should be the one game to be devote of any drama. 

Mike Tomlin has continued his absurd NFL record 17 straight winning seasons to begin his career with a roster riddled with underperforming players at skill positions. He is a fantastic head coach and deserves plenty of praise, but he will not be able to win them this game especially as face of the franchise TJ Watt will be sidelined with an injury. 

Going into this game Tomlin has opted to stick with Mason Rudolf who led Pittsburgh to three straight wins to end the season, stealing the final AFC playoff birth. Tomlin said he is “Staying with the hot hand and not upsetting the apple cart” in regards to the quarterback decision, which is probably the best decision.

Kenny Pickett insult stats are building up. Pickett has the worst touchdowns per passing attempts ration in NFL history for any QB with 500 or more throws at 1.82%. He only has 13 career touchdown passes, which is the same amount of touchdowns Joe Flacco has thrown for since joining the Browns. But hey, his preseason performances were awesome!

Aside from starting a backup quarterback amid injury and less than desirable performance, the running back position has its own ambiguities. Jaylen Warren has been named “starter” after Najee Harris struggled this season, but their snap counts haven’t really changed. The Steelers just have too many moving parts that are out of whack to win behind a bland offense without even diving into the diva tendencies by receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson who are allergic to blocking. That combined with the injury to their best player in Watt makes the piping hot Bills -10 line more than appropriate. 

The Bills run has been impressive. They were dead, deep into the “In the Hunt” graphic among a slew of AFC teams that didn’t have a prayer in making the playoffs. Then the calendar turned to December where the Bills got hot at the eleventh hour, going 5-0 in to win the AFC East and securing the #2 seed.

In their winning streak, they’ve added some massive resume boosting wins over the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins making a statement that their midseason struggles are over. This is the Bills team that we expected coming into the season and they have tightened the screws when the engine was about to fall out from the bottom. 

If this game were to be played in a dome or somewhere that doesn’t have snowstorms, the Bills should beat the Steelers soundly. But the reality of this game is that there will be snow and grueling weather which brings Tomlin and the Steelers back into this game. If they can limit James Cook in the snow and if either Warren or Harris steps up to  bully their way to the endzone, then the Steelers have a shot. 

Prediction: 27-14 Bill win a run heavy game with some Josh Allen magic sprinkled in like the wonder of fresh Christmas snow. Tomlin will put up a fight, but ultimately the Bills will be too much to handle. 

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys:

This matchup between Dallas and Green Bay is a narrative dream. Mike McCarthy obviously won a Super Bowl with the Packers, but he also beat Dak Prescott in his first playoff game. The narrative around McCarthy is that he isn’t a great head coach and has been carried by immense talent, like Rodgers in Green Bay, and the plethora of skill position players in Dallas. If McCarthy has a gaffe like calling a qb draw to end the game against San Francisco in the 2021 Wild Card round, then he could get fired. But, that shouldn’t happen. The Cowboys are 8-0 at home, and they’re favored by 7.5 points. There’s no way, right?

Wrong. Dallas can absolutely lose this game. It’s more than in the realm of possibility. The narrative surrounding them is that they can’t beat winning teams, so let’s look at their resume. 

Four wins (LAR, PHI, SEA, DET) and four losses (SF, MIA, BUF, PHI) against teams with a winning record at the time of the game. They beat the Rams, Seahawks, and Eagles during their worst stretch of performances of their seasons. The Rams had a losing record when they played, the Seahawks didn’t even make the playoffs, and the Eagles are experiencing the worst collapse seen in years. That leaves the Lions win, which shouldn’t have been a win at all. The referees completely missed a call erroneously taking away a winning 2-point conversion by claiming tackle Taylor Decker didn’t declare as pass eligible even though he did, and Dan Campbell explained this play to the referee crew before the game to prevent any confusion. The Lions should be the #2 seed. 

Now let’s look at the Cowboys losses. The 49ers humiliated Dallas winning by 32 points, the Bills blew them out winning by 21, they lost to the Dolphins who are the reverse versions of themselves who also can’t beat any good team but hey someone had to win, and they lost to the Eagles due to boneheaded mistakes like when Dak stepped out of bounds when he had a free touchdown that could have won that game. The Cowboys are soft, they are front runners, and they don’t beat good teams. The Eagles are not good. 

Now let’s examine the Packers resume. They’ve beaten the Chiefs, the Lions, and the Rams. They’ve lost to the Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, and Giants. The Packers aren’t a great team. The losses I just listed are awful. Hell, this is a Jekyll and Hyde team that may not get off the bus, but they may rise to the occasion beating a better team on any given Sunday. 

What they have going for them is that they are the Cowboys kryptonite. They have a winning record. 

I just went over the fraudulent nature of their wins over teams with winning records. More historical obstacles for Dallas include Dak’s 1-5 record against the spread in the playoffs and that the Packers have scored at least 34 points against Dallas at AT&T Stadium, the only team with 4+ wins and no losses in Jerry’s World. It’s the longest streak among all NFL teams against Dallas, with no NFL team doing this more than twice. 

The Cowboys prey on bad teams and blow them out. The Packers aren’t great, but they aren’t bad. The Packers are tougher than this soft Cowboys team and if the Packers X-Factor Christian Watson plays, then the Cowboys are looking at an upset. 

Last year, the Packers upset the Cowboys behind the coming out party for Watson where he told the NFL that he was the real deal. He’s been limited to only nine games this year after injuring his hamstring against the Chiefs on Dec. 3. If he can find a way to play, look to Watson, a relatively fresh Aaron Jones, and touchdown scorer Romeo Doubs to put up points on the Cowboys defense. 

Prediction: 24-20, the Packers put up some points early, win with defense ending in an interception thrown by Dak Prescott sealing the win for Green Bay in the McCarthy Bowl. 

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions:

The most intriguing game in the Wild Card slate. All-time leading passer in Lions franchise history Matt Stafford returns to Detroit in their first home playoff game since 1993. The Lions haven’t advanced in the playoffs in this millennium, and the misery could be extended by their former face of the franchise. 

In addition to the pressure on Detroit losing to an old friend, quarterback Jared Goff has his own revenge to seek out on the Rams who drafted him number one overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, who he went on to fall short to the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. Coach Sean McVay didn’t believe Goff could bring him over the top, trading him to Detroit for Stafford who went on to give the Rams the Super Bowl title over the Bengals in 2021. There is so much on the line for Detroit. America will be rooting for the lowly Lions Sunday in what should be a tremendous game. 

Both teams have high powered offenses with defenses susceptible to struggles. McVay led his team that was supposed to be rebuilding to the playoffs behind an unexpected emergence of budding star receiver Puka Nacua and stud running back Kyren Williams. On top of that, veterans like pro-bowler Stafford and Cooper Kupp have put up some stellar performances to blend with the young guns giving opposing defenses fits. 

The Lions have enjoyed Goff’s resurgence ignited last season that has carried over to 2023. Dan Campbell’s offense has star power in the passing game with star Amon Ra St. Brown and rookie pro-bowl tight end Sam LaPorta. In the rushing game, veteran David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs poses one of the best dynamic duos in backfield the NFL has to offer. 

This game will come down to defense. Who will make more plays? 

Looking at the personnel on both defenses, the Rams will have the best defender on the field in Aaron Donald, who was named a pro-bowler for the ninth time in as many seasons. For Detroit, the 2nd overall pick in last years draft Aiden Hutchinson is the star of the defense who was named a pro-bowler this year in his own right. 

Teams beat the Lions defense through the air, because on the ground Detroit boasts the 2nd best rushing defense, surrendering only 88.8 yards a game. The Lions just escape being in the bottom five passing defense, being only better than Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, and Washington. The Rams have the a solid but not great rushing defense giving up the 12th least yards a game, but they are also in the bottom half of the passing defense at 20th. 

This game will be fascinating because both teams have creative explosive offenses and struggling defenses. The Lions defense is awesome against the run and atrocious against the pass. The Rams are closer to the middle for both. Will the Lions great run defense force the Rams to be one dimensional in the passing game? Or Will the Rams just put up a flurry of points in the air? 

With the Lions giving three points in the spread, Vegas thinks this game will be close. Both the Lions (3) and Rams (8) are top ten in offensive red zone touchdowns scored per game. Defensively, the Lions are 27th in opponent red zone scores, but the Rams are 11th. 

The game will come down to whether the Lions can get a well timed stop or not. Both teams are in the bottom half of takeaways, but the Rams are the third worst team in the league in takeaways. 

This game will come down to well timed defensive stops, winning the turnover differential, and special teams which the Rams have the worst unit in the NFL by far. 

Prediction: In a back and forth thriller with two even teams, this game is decided with bonus football. 39-36 Lions, in overtime. This shootout will be remembered as a classic. The Lions will benefit with a positive special teams play and the Rams will suffer from a missed kick or two.  

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 

This game is challenging to decipher. On one hand the NFC South champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, host the game which should give them an advantage. On the other hand, the Bucs were a mediocre team that won a division with no true contenders. The NFC South’s slogan all year was, “Well, someone has to win the division.” 

On the other hand, the defending NFC Champions have fallen off a cliff after starting 10-1. Starting with a beatdown in Philly at the hands of Deebo Samuel and the 49ers, the Eagles have lost five of their last six games, including losses against basement dwellers Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants. The Eagles are favored, but should they?

The Eagles defense has morphed into one of the league’s worst units in the back half of the season, and their offense certainly has its struggles without even mentioning injuries to Jalen Hurts’ finger, AJ Brown’s knee, and Devonta Smith’s ankle. 

Early in the season the Eagles overpowered the Bucs, but in the last Wild Card game to play, I wouldn’t be so sure. The Eagles have been an absolute disaster, unable to stop any offense they play. The Bucs have Mike Evans, who should be in the Hall of Fame when he retires for being the first receiver to begin his career with 10 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Look to Baker Mayfield’s strong report with Evans to shred the beaten puppy that’s become the Eagles defense. 

Offensively, Hurts’ finger is mangled and AJ Brown might not play after injuring his knee. If Brown is unable to participate and Hurts can’t grip the ball so well, the Eagles are going to go out sad. 

Prediction: 20-13 Buccaneers in a rock fight won by Mike Evans heroics. 

Predicted Divisional Round matchups:

49ers vs Packers

Ravens vs Browns

Lions vs Buccaneers 

Bills vs Chiefs