NFC Championship: Why the 49ers are Going to the Super Bowl

The NFC Championship game will be a clash of classes. The 49ers are among NFL royalty making their 19th NFC Championship appearance and fourth in five years, the most out of any NFC team ever. In their Divisional Round win against the Packers, they tied the New England Patriots for the most playoff wins in NFL history with 37. In the visiting corner, the Detroit Lions are regarded as one of the saddest franchises not just in the NFL, but all of sports. This is only their second NFC Championship appearance and have never been to the Super Bowl. 

But Lions fans have a reason to feel a foreign feeling for their football team. Pride. The Lions have built a stellar team on the shoulders of the NFL’s ultimate hype man Dan Campbell. Not only have they drafted well and acquired pieces that fit into the gritty knee-cap chomping ethos of their head coach, but emotionally Campbell always gets the most out of his team rallying a group to run through a brick wall for him every week. They are an awesome team, with an awesome coach, who call awesome gamble plays. 

With all of America rooting for the Detroit Lions to shock the world, with some odd coincidences that may indicate the Lions are a dreaded team of destiny, here is why the biggest villain on Championship Sunday will advance to the franchise’s eighth Super Bowl, leaving the lovable losers in Detroit with a familiar sad feeling heading back to Michigan. 

Kyle Shanahan exploits weakness. The last time the 49ers hosted an NFC Championship game, Shanahan established the run early and dared Green Bay to make an adjustment to stop it. They couldn’t, allowing Raheem Mostert to embarrass Green Bay by rushing for a historic 220 yards and 4 touchdowns. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo only threw 8 passes on route to a 37-20 blowout. 

In this NFC Championship, Shanahan is presented with a different weakness to exploit. The Detroit Lions Achilles heel is their passing defense. This season their rushing defense ranks toward the top in most categories, but their passing defense is the opposite. 

The Lions defense has been a statistical nightmare, giving up 11.6 yards per completion for 31st in the NFL, 7.3 yards per attempt for 30th, 12.7 passing 1st downs per game for 30th, 63.02% opponent passing first down percentage for 28th, 93.3 average opponent passer rating for 24th, 277.8 gross passing yards given up a game for dead last in the NFL.

You get it, their passing defense is terrible. But, San Francisco is a run first team that checks down the ball when they throw, right? That should bode well for a stellar run defense, right? 

Wrong.

Brock Purdy is 1st in the NFL with 9.6 yards per attempt, second by 0.1% with a 69.4 completion percentage, 3rd with 31 touchdowns, 1st in quarterback rating at 113. On top of that, the 49ers vaunted pass catchers are the NFL’s best unit with 6.6 YAC per completion, and they drop a league fewest 1.9% of their passes. One of the most efficient offenses through the air going against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL is not a favorable matchup in any scenario. 

Put pressure on the 49ers weak offensive line and the Purdy will fold, right? 

Wrong.

Per PFF, Purdy was the NFL’s 5th best quarterback under pressure. Jared Goff doesn’t crack the top 15. For the Lions to win this game, they are going to need to sack Purdy early and often, forcing them to be in 3rd and long scenarios, while offensively they need to keep a clean pocket for Goff. 

The 49ers path to victory lies in playing their brand of offense. Purdy making throws with anticipation, accuracy, and hitting his receivers in stride to rack up YAC should allow the 49ers offense to frolic in the open field stacking chunk plays on a defense that shouldn’t be able to cover them with any efficiency. So, what’s the Lions path to punching their ticket to their first Super Bowl?

On offense, establish the run and keep a clean pocket for Goff. On defense, hope Deebo Samuel can’t suit up, limit the NFL rushing champion Christian McCaffrey, and win the turnover battle. 

I truly think all of that has to happen. The Lions are talented, they are physical, they take calculated risks, but their passing defense just isn’t at a championship level, particularly against an elite offense with special playmakers wherever you look. The 49ers really only lose when they turn the ball over. If they don’t, they’re almost impossible to stop. 

PREDICTION: In a game with plenty of offensive fire power, the 49ers will set off more fireworks on the Detroit defense. The Lions will also put up points, but their inability to stop San Francisco’s passing attack will end their season. 

Final Score: 49ers win 41-31.