Monday Night Football Week 7: 49ers @ Vikings Keys to Victory

Two weeks ago, this matchup was marked on the NFL calendar as basically a lock for a a 49ers victory. The Vikings dropped to 1-4 against the Chiefs while losing Justin Jefferson to injury and the 49ers were at full strength destroying the Cowboys 42-10 improving to 5-0.

Since then, the 49ers lost a dog fight in Cleveland battling against the NFL’s best defense and less than ideal weather conditions. San Francisco lost not only in the win column, but also Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams. The Vikings bounced back winning a rock fight in Chicago against the lowly Bears and hope to ride their momentum this week against on Monday night.

With Samuel and Williams both out for San Francisco, that offers a glimmer of hope that wasn't there before for the Vikings. Injuries will affect both teams, so here are the keys to victory a win on Monday Night Football.

Trench Warfare

The biggest factor of the game will be line play. Minnesota is the 3rd worst in the NFL in giveaways due to poor offensive line performance that has put far too much pressure on Kirk Cousins, while the 49ers defensive line has disappointed in terms of sacks this season, collecting only 15 which is 21st in the NFL.

Nick Bosa, the reigning defensive player of the year, is getting some criticism for only having 2.5 sacks heading into the game. Last year he had 11.5 entering Week 7. Javon Hargrave and Drake Jackson lead the team with three. Jackson hasn’t had a sack since Week 1. Last week Cleveland generated offense against San Francisco by establishing the run and getting the ball out quickly, limiting the pass rush to two sacks.

The Vikings posted their best offensive line performance last week with four of their five lineman posting top ten PFF rankings at their position and all had positive grades overall. Minnesota needs that to continue if they want to upset San Francisco.

Switching sides, the 49ers are going to be without Trent Williams with an ankle injury. Often regarded as the best offensive tackle in football, Williams’ absence could prove crucial for a 49ers offensive line that depends on his dominance. One of the weak spots on their talented roster is right tackle Colton McKivitz who is the 56th tackle in PFF’s rankings. Jaylon Moore will start in place of Williams with only five career starts. The 49ers lost 28-14 in a Week 6 at Atlanta in his last start.

Danielle Hunter currently has eight sacks which ties him for the league lead with former defensive player of the year TJ Watt. The 49ers have struggled with higher echelon defensive lineman, giving up three sacks and a fumble recovery from Watt going against McKivitz, and Myles Garrett dominated the line of scrimmage providing constant pressure despite some emptier numbers. If Hunter can consistently pressure Brock Purdy, record sacks, and open up opportunities for his teammates on the defensive line, Minnesota can hang around.

The winner of the trenches will likely walk away with a win.

Turnovers

Games are often decided by the turnover battle. The 49ers have an NFL best turnover differential of +8. The aforementioned 3rd worst turnover differential for the Vikings is highlighted by their league worst nine fumbles. That cannot happen against 49ers. Purdy only has one interception and the 49ers have only lost two fumbles.

Kirk Cousins needs to protect the ball as well. Throwing interceptions, like the 99-yard pick six he threw in Week 4, can break the back of a team that enters as a seven point dog.

On Monday Night Football, his touchdown to interception ratio is 14-12 which needs to improve. To be blunt, the Vikings need to win the turnover battle. They have nearly half of the 11 49ers takeaways with six. If they don’t, their margin for error shrinks.

Wilting in the Spotlight

“Primetime” Kirk Cousins has been a running joke in the NFL for years, and for good reason. Cousins is 11-19 in primetime. On Monday Night Football? An atrocious 2-10.

Cousins yearly has criticism for his performance in big games which includes last year’s upset in the Divisional Round against the New York Giants where Cousins threw short of the sticks on 4th down to end the game. The Vikings need their captain to be their best player against the 49ers defense that gives up the least points per game.

Purdy is in a different spot. He will be starting his 13th regular season game in the NFL on Monday night. Already, Purdy has more playoff wins than Cousins, with two last season. He destroyed the then top ranked Cowboys defense in Week 5.

What he hasn’t shown yet is how he responds to a loss. Shockingly, Mr. Irrelevant suffered his first career regular season loss last week against the Browns, giving Purdy’s doubters some life. Without McCaffrey, Deebo and a hobbled Williams, Purdy had easily the worst game of his career. 12-27, 125 yards, a touchdown and a bad interception throwing behind Aiyuk over the middle.

The NFL world will be watching to see if Kirk Cousins can add a win to his low primetime total, and how Brock Purdy responds to adversity. While Cousins' performance is easier to predict, Purdy’s is not. He is a second year player who finds himself in a situation he hasn’t been in before following a loss without two Pro-Bowl offensive weapons.

This is a matchup of who blinks first at quarterback.

Prediction

Losing Justin Jefferson is a tremendous blow. Rookie Jordan Addison having to lead the wide receivers in absence of one of the best players in football is difficult in any circumstance, especially against a nasty seasoned defense from San Francisco.

That being said, it will be tough for Purdy to overcome losing Deebo Samuel, but Trent Williams is the bigger loss. The 49ers line looks poor without him at left tackle. It is a tremendously vulnerable unit against the league’s sack leader.

Despite injuries, the 49ers will ride their elite defense behind Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. Christian McCaffrey will extend his touchdown streak to 16 games and Purdy bounces back with some support from Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Final score: 49ers cover the spread 24-16.