Keys to Victory: Week 5 SNF 49ers vs Cowboys

A battle between NFC heavyweights takes place on Sunday Night Football as the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers face off in a game that could be a preview for a potential playoff matchup in January. Both teams are trying to show the rest of the league that their offenses can put up points in big games against elite defenses, which both teams have.

These two teams that share a historic rivalry are very similar in many ways. Top three defense, significantly talented roster, and some questions at quarterback. Here are the keys to the game that may decide who leaves victorious, and who has to answer hard questions down the line.

Winning in the Red Zone

The red zone defense of the 49ers and the red zone offense of the Cowboys mirror each other as a chink in otherwise flawless armor. The 49ers have given up a touchdown in the red zone on 66.67% of opportunities, while the Cowboys offense has only scored a touchdown in 36.84% of theirs.

The Cowboys offense hasn’t had to be perfect yet this season because their top ranked defense has scored four touchdowns already while only allowing 10.3 points a game. In their one loss to Arizona, Dak Prescott threw a boneheaded interception into triple coverage to extinguish any hope of a comeback late in the 4th quarter.

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said earlier this week that “We’ve had some weak moments” referring to his third ranked defense that has only allowed 14.5 points a game. He noted that giving up 17 first half points to the Rams in Week 2 and two drives last week against the Cardinals were not up to the typical standard of one of the NFL’s most talented defenses. “We had some down plays but we made some plays to win the game so it was an okay performance from us,” said Shanahan.

Both the 49ers defense and Dak Prescott will need to be playing their best if they want their team to win this game that has significant playoff implications.

The Turnover Battle

For Dallas, winning the turnover battle against a top three defense will be crucial. In their three wins, the Cowboys have won the turnover 4-0 against the Patriots, 4-0 against the Jets, 7-1 against the Giants in their beatdown to open the season. In their one loss, they lost the turnover battle 2-0 against the Cardinals who forced a turnover on downs and a game sealing interception.

San Francisco has yet to lose the turnover battle this season, helping them stay undefeated through the first month of the season. Their lone turnover came on a fumble in Week 1 where TJ Watt was unblocked, knocking the ball loose from blindsided Brock Purdy.

The Cowboys need to win the turnover battle if they want to upset the 49ers, and it starts with Dak Prescott. If he throws interceptions like he did in the previous two playoff matchups between San Francisco and Dallas, the 49ers will win.

Run CMC

For the 49ers, having Christian McCaffrey score has been the recipe for success. Since he joined the 49ers in a trade from Carolina last year, McCaffrey has scored in every game since his first where he was used in a minimal amount of snaps because he had only been a 49er for two days to that point. McCaffrey has scored in 13 straight games breaking a franchise record held by Jerry Rice. The 49ers have only lost once in games McCaffrey reaches the end zone, that being in last years NFC Championship game against the Philadelphia Eagles where Brock Purdy sustained an elbow injury preventing him from being able to throw on his first drive.

Dallas has the defense that can stop McCaffrey’s significant streak, but if he scores like he did against the Cowboys in last years Divisional round, that’ll be bad news for Cowboys fans. The Cowboys mission: don’t let McCaffrey score for the 14th straight game, which would tie the Dallas franchise record set by Emmitt Smith.

Prediction

This will be a hard fought battle between two top teams in the NFL, reminiscent of the battles they had in the 90's. Overall, I think the 49ers can force Dak Prescott to throw a back breaking interception at some point in the game, and that the 49ers high powered offense will do enough behind a good performance from McCaffrey to win the game. Final score: San Francisco 28-20, with McCaffrey extending his touchdown streak to 14 games.