AFC Championship: What Kansas City Needs to do to Upset Baltimore

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are 4.5 point dogs, matching a 2018 road game against the Steelers for the most points the Chiefs are giving up in the Patrick Mahomes era. The Baltimore Ravens right now have the highest Weighted DVOA ever, which usually indicates success in the Super Bowl. The next three highest below Baltimore won the Super Bowl. 

The Ravens are such a uniquely difficult team to match up against. Their league leading defense feeds on their offense run by former MVP Lamar Jackson. This season, teams have struggled to stop Lamar on offense, and have struggled more to score points on their defense. If they can cap off two more wins, this will be looked at as an iconic powerhouse team, a legend that will not be forgotten in history. 

The only entity stopping the Ravens from being favored by 10 points will wear number 15 in white on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes is unquestionably the best quarterback in the NFL and has already put himself on a trajectory that is Brady-like by appearing in the AFC Championship in each of his six seasons as a starter. 

Before turning 30, Tom Brady had a playoff record of 12-2, threw for 3,217 yards, 20 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and won three championships. Mahomes is 28, and he has a record of 13-3, he’s thrown for 36 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and two championships. 

Insanity. 

Patrick Mahomes will no doubt keep the Chiefs in the game, but here are the people who need to step up in order for them to reach Super Bowl number four in the Mahomes era.

They have to be able to limit Lamar running in space. Easier said than done, it’s nearly impossible to stop his running affect, so limiting it will have to do. Prevent Jackson from getting big chunk runs or timely scampers into the end zone, and Kansas City has a chance. 

On top of Lamar running the ball, the Chiefs defense are going to need to plug up the running game as a whole. With JK Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell out with injury, it’s been Gus Edwards leading the Ravens backfield with some help from Justice Hill and now Dalvin Cook. Despite a classic slew of injuries for Baltimore, they lead the league with 160.6 yards per game. Rushing the football is the piston that churns this offense, it’s what allows Todd Monken’s elevated passing plays to flourish. Lamar is the 5th best quarterback under pressure, but the tough Chiefs defense would rather have Jackson beat them through the air than trample them on the ground. The more Kansas City limits the run, the more the odds tilt in their favor.

Drops in this game are unacceptable. The Chiefs have already looked to address this by sitting Kadarious Toney, who took to social media that the team is lying about his injury designation, keeping him in street clothes for the AFC Championship. Good for the Chiefs, Toney has been a drop factory that’s also gift wrapped the opposition several takeaways this season. When he is on the field, the Chiefs production drops significantly. For a unit that easily dropped the most passes in the NFL, sometimes subtraction is an addition. The Chiefs can’t be dropping passes and turning the ball over if they want to escape with a win over a juggernaut Ravens team.

Travis Kelce has been in the spotlight all season, not necessarily for playing to a standard of play he’s set in his Hall of Fame career, but rather by dating one of the most famous women on Earth. Kelce found his stride against the Bills in the Divisional Round, who caught two touchdowns behind 75 yards leading the Chiefs to a thriller 27-24 Win in Buffalo. If Kelce can be the red zone and third down threat that’s catapulted him into legend these last several years, the Chiefs have a shot. 

Again, Mahomes will show up ready to win, the question is will his teammates? If we witness the Chiefs defense contain the run, win the turnover battle, limit their drops, and Mahomes and Kelce can turn in another vintage performance between the best pass catching duo in playoff history, then the Chiefs will win. 

Prediction: In a game that will be looked back on as a classic, the Chiefs will engineer the two minute drill to perfection to steal one in Baltimore, returning to the Super Bowl to defend their title. Lamar breaks off some special plays, but ultimately the Ravens just don’t do enough. 

Final Score: 33-30 Chiefs.