49ers vs Packers: NFL Divisional Round Prediction

The (1) San Francisco 49ers host the (7) Green Bay Packers for their 10th playoff meeting all-time, marking the most playoff matchups in NFL history. The 49ers have lead the rivalry 5-4, having won four in a row against the Packers. 

Green Bay is set to enter Levi’s Stadium Saturday night with some injury concern. Star CB Jaire Alexander is questionable after leaving the Wild Card game against the Cowboys. Matt LaFleur said Alexander wouldn't have been able to return, most likely, even if it was a closer game. If he can’t go after not practicing on Wednesday and Thursday, that'll a huge loss for a defense that needs him to compete.

Other questionable Packers include ILB Isaiah McDuffie (neck), RB AJ Dillon (thumb), and punter Daniel Whelan (illness). OLB Kingsley Enagbare tore his ACL against the Cowboys and is ruled OUT. Kyle Shanahan is known to exploit linebackers, so the Packers being stretched thin at linebacker presents an additional problem. 

Unlike the Packers, the 49ers enter this game the healthiest they’ve been all season, aided by the first round bye they earned by clinching the NFC’s top seed. The only casualties facing the 49ers this week is DE Clelin Ferrell and former pro-bowl safety Talanoa Hufanga who suffered a season ending ACL injury in November. Dre Greenlaw is questionable but should be fine by Saturday (Achilles tendinitis).

With other Divisional games being played in frigid, cold temperatures in Buffalo and Baltimore, who says California can’t host a bad weather playoff game? According to the National Weather Service, there’s an 80% chance of rain and wind gusts as high as 21 MPH. 

ANALYSIS 

If the weather reports hold true and this game becomes a battle of handoffs, the 49ers should still be heavy favorites. Rain won't give the Packers a needed bread to gain an edge. Green Bay is 24th in opponent yards per rush attempt, 5th worst giving up 128 rushing yards a game, and is also 5th worst in defensive 3rd down conversion rate.

Christian McCaffrey took the NFL’s rushing crown by being third in rush yards per carry (5.4), leading the league in rushing yards every single week this season. The last running back to achieve that feat was Emmitt Smith in 1995, the year the Cowboys won their last championship. The Packers defense is in trouble and I haven’t even mentioned the 49ers pass catchers yet. 

Meanwhile, the 49ers defense is 14th in opponent yards per rush attempt, and give up the 3rd least rushing yards per game. Aaron Jones, averaging 4.7 yards a carry, is a phenomenal running back, but San Francisco has one of the few rushers in the league you’d pick over Jones. The Packers are going to need Jordan Love to pass efficiently to set up Jones to excel on the ground. If the 49ers star studded defense gives Love fits, then the Packers become one dimensional leaving them without a prayer leave California with a win. The 49ers have a better defense and a more successful running back, while the Packers have a worse defense and a less successful running back. Not a recipe for success. 

If weather does permit passing allowing both teams to have a more balanced attack, the 49ers are still better in every facet of the game. 

Jordan Love completed 64.2% of his passes for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns this year. Brock Purdy completed 69.4% of his passes for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns, but on 135 less pass attempts. Give Purdy the same amount of attempts and watch his stats dwarf Love’s. 

The Packers aren’t bad, they will be a good team in the future especially as they add onto the core they’ve developed this year. It’s just not their year. They exceeded expectations beating the Cowboys in Jerry’s World, which is great to get Love a playoff win on his resume in his first season as a starter. LaFleur is an awesome coach and I respect the fight Green Bay has, but they are the inferior team, the less healthy team, and the less rested team on the road. 

Think about this scenario. Quarterback A is good QB with limited weapons going against a star studded defense that's rested. Quarterback B is a good QB with star caliber offensive weapons in both the rushing and passing attack going up against a defense that is middle of the pack even when key pieces aren’t banged up like they currently are. Quarterback B is the much more obvious path to victory, and Quarterback B is Brock Purdy. 

PREDICTION

Shanahan will run McCaffrey down Green Bay’s throat, reminiscent of the 2019 NFC Championship game featuring Raheem Mostert, and Purdy will hit his star receivers to move the ball down field. A banged up Packers defense won’t be able to handle a rested 49ers offensive explosion. The Packers prayers for the rain to make the ball slippery in the hands of 49ers ball carriers were not answered.

Jordan Love will move the ball putting up some points for Green Bay, because again I’m not trying to hate on him because he's a good quarterback, but he won’t outscore the 49ers because his offense isn’t as talented. The end of the Packers’ season won’t be the fault of their quarterback, it will be their defense that just doesn’t have enough juice to handle one of the best offenses the NFL has seen in recent memory. 

Here’s to Purdy vs Love being the next NFC quarterback rivalry, but Purdy is going to win round one, taking the 49ers are to their third consecutive NFC Championship Game. 

Final Score: 38-24 49ers.