2023 World Series: Who Has the Edge?

A fresh World Series that is the first since 2016 to include neither the Astros or Dodgers is set after both road teams won Game 7 in the LCS for the first time ever.

Bruce Bochy returns for his 5th World Series giving the Texas Rangers an opportunity to win their first in franchise history.

Torey Lovullo makes his first World Series appearance taking the Diamondbacks to their first Fall Classic since the 2001 team won it all in only their 4th season.

In a matchup that has the lowest combined winning percentage in World Series (.537), who has the edge?

Home Sweet Home?

The Texas Rangers had the superior regular season record (90-72), so they have home field advantage. In the Wild Card era, the team with that advantage has won 18 of 27 times, excluding the neutral site 2020 World Series which ironically was held in Arlington at Globe Life Field.

Rangers fans will surely take a two-thirds chance to win their first title, but things could get dicey if it goes to Game 7. Team’s hosting a World Series Game 7 have a losing record all time at 19-21. The Rangers know the pain of that stat well, losing their last World Series appearance in 2011 to the Cardinals in a series that made David Freese famous. It also doesn’t help that the Diamondback franchise is 2-0 in Game 7’s and will be on the road if that game is played.

What is going for Rangers fans is that Bruce Bochy is 6-3 at home in the World Series and is undefeated in Game 7’s, which includes winning the 2014 World Series on the road as manager of the San Francisco Giants.

If the series goes seven, it would be fascinating to see what has more power: the ghosts of Rangers past, or Bochy’s unbelievable big game success. Speaking of managers…

Managerial Advantage

Bochy is the best manager since Joe Torre. He is the first manager to take three different franchises to the World Series (SD, SF, TEX). Undefeated in Game 7 (3-0) and in winner-take-all games (6-0). He’s also won 13 of his last 14 post-season series, losing only to the most due franchise of all time in the 2016 Chicago Cubs. In Bochy’s dynastic run in San Francisco, not only were the Giants picked to lose every World Series, the Giants were picked to lose every playoff series period. It cannot be understated how important Bochy is in this series.

Torey Lovullo in comparison is nearly a playoff virgin. In his seven seasons as manager, he has made the playoffs once, getting swept by the Dodgers in the NLDS. In his second time around, Lovullo has been impressive sweeping both the Brewers and Dodgers on route to the NLCS and dethroned the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies on the road. He has also done a terrific job managing his bullpen, which has been elite this post-season.

Expectations will be that Bruce Bochy will push all the right buttons, so the pressure is on Lovullo to do the same. If he can’t rise to the occasion, the Diamondbacks do not fair well.

Bochy has the clear advantage.

Young and Dumb vs Grizzled Veterans

The Rangers vastly superior postseason experience goes beyond just the manager. Texas has several players who have won it all as well. Starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi have won a World Series, in 2018 for Eovaldi as a member of the Red Sox and in 2019 for Scherzer as a National.

Shortstop Corey Seager played deep into the playoffs in every full year he was a Dodger. In 2020, he won the NLCS MVP on the way to winning the COVID year World Series in 2020 and lost the controversial World Series against the Astros in Game 7 at Dodger Stadium.

1st Baseman Nathaniel Lowe lost to Seager in the 2020 World Series as a member of the Rays. Aroldis Chapman won in 2016 with the Cubs.

As for Arizona, Evan Longoria lost the 2008 World Series in Philadelphia when he was a rookie for Tampa Bay 15 years ago and reliever Ryan Thompson also lost as a Ray in 2020. That’s it.

Aside from a dearth of post-season experience, a lot of key Diamondbacks players don’t have a ton of major league experience period. Youth is infused in their starting lineup. Standout starting catcher Gabriel Moreno is in his second year, shortstop Gerald Perdomo is in year three, third baseman Emmanuel Rivera is in year three, and NLCS Game 7 starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie just like NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll.

Sometimes experience be damned. Arizona just the Dodgers and Phillies who are both more experienced. Lovullo just needs to keep his group doing what they’ve been doing, and maybe they are young and dumb enough to win in spite of their experience.

That being said, the Rangers advantage in experience is monumental.

Starting Pitching

In this post-season, these starting staffs have been nearly identical. In the same amount of games played (12), the Rangers narrowly edge the Diamondbacks in ERA, innings pitched, and whip.

The numbers? Texas holds slight advantages with an ERA of 3.62 over 3.63, have posted 59.2 innings compared to an even 57. Arizona narrowly leads in WHIP (1.21 to 1.24) and strikeouts (55 to 51).

So where is there a significant advantage?

Arizona’s opposing batting average is at 2.36 versus the Rangers’ 2.58. The Diamondbacks can manufacture runs the old fashioned way by getting base hits and advancing the runners through stolen bases. Although, Arizona’s given up 11 home runs to Texas’ six. The Rangers have tremendous team power and can break games open with the long ball. Just ask the Houston Astros.

The starting pitching is so evenly matched, this advantage lies in experience. Game 1 starter Nathan Eovaldi is one of the best playoff performers to take the mound in recent memory. He is 8-3 in his playoff career, posting a 2.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, nine strikeouts per nine innings, and has only given up five home runs in 69 innings. This post season, he’s dazzled with a 2.42 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.

The other Game 1 starter in Zac Gallen has been shakier. His less than desirable 4.96 ERA contributes to his -6.3 cWPA (championship win probability added), which says that he is boosting the Rangers chance at winning the title by 6.3 percentage points. That has to be better against a Texas team with a proven assassin on the bump starting opposite of him.

In following games, Arizona will likely start Merrill Kelly in Game 2 who posts a 2.65 ERA with a 2-1 record. Brandon Pfaadt has risen to the occasion with a 2.70 ERA in four games and probably starts Game 3.

Texas will need to decide what order Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery will start in the two games following Eovaldi. With Scherzer struggling a bit and Montgomery shoving with an unbeaten 2-0 record with an ERA of 2.38, Bochy will likely save him for Game 3 if the Rangers win Game 1 and use Scherzer for Game 2. If they lose, it could flip.

The starting pitching is so close in this series. Both teams are performing at high level, but the Rangers have two former champions in Eovaldi and Scherzer who are used to the big stage giving them the slight nod.

Starting Lineups

The bats are where this series begins showing separation statistically. The Rangers are backed behind All-Stars sluggers Seager, Jonah Heim, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung and the hottest hitter left in baseball: ALCS MVP Adolis García. Texas bests Arizona with a .265 batting average, .481 SLG%, .344 OBP, .825 OPS and 22 home runs.

Arizona has a .247 batting average, .424 SLG%, .317 OBP, .741 OPS and 18 homers. The Diamondback’s hitters are going to need to elevate their performance if they want to hang around with Bruce Bochy’s far more talented lineup. Look to Carroll and NLCS MVP Ketel Marte to lead the Diamondbacks with the lumber.

Advantage: Texas.

Bullpen

Just when the Rangers separate themselves, Arizona tightens the gap. Lovullo has leaned on Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald this post-season for 56% of the bullpen innings with good reason.

Ryan Thompson: 10.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, 10 H, 8 K, 3 BB. He was picked up off waivers in August and has rewarded his new club. He leads their bullpen in innings so far in the playoffs and has done nothing but produce with a 1.59 NLCS ERA.

Kevin Ginkel: 9 IP, 6 H, 13 K, and a 0.00 ERA. He has been elite, the ERA says enough. He’s been phenomenal commanding his fastball and leaving hitters looking for answers with his slider. The setup man has been automatic playing wingman to Sewald.

Paul Sewald: 8 IP, 11 K, 3 H, 0.00 ERA.

The Mariners were roasted by the MLB community last trade deadline when they surprisingly sent him to the Diamondbacks who was elite before landing in Arizona. The Diamondbacks closer has been un-hittable, giving his club an automatic win when he takes the mound. Another perfect ERA for an Arizona bullpen that will shorten the game.

In comparison to the Diamondbacks, the Rangers bullpen leaves a lot to be disired. The Ranger’s league worst 47.6 save percentage reared its ugly head in Game 5 of the ALCS when closer Jose LeCleric gave up a go-ahead home run to Jose Altuve in the 8th inning.

Texas had the worst regular season bullpen ERA (4.77) but improved to a still shoddy 8th out of 12 post-season teams (3.72). The one glaring weakness on the Rangers would be more concerning if they didn’t have the best bullpen manager in recent memory. Bruce Bochy’s ability to use guys in the right situations was one of the chief reasons San Francisco won three championships, including in 2010 against the Rangers.

With a unit that’s given them problems all season, there are some bright spots. Josh Sborz has only given two hits in 8.2 innings. Aroldis Chapman, who isn’t the same electric talent he used to be, has allowed just one run in 6.1 innings. LeCleric even finished the club’s first seven playoff games, which is an MLB record. He also rebounded with a big performance in Game 6.

It would be foolish to doubt Bochy’s legendary bullpen management, but sometimes you just don’t have the horses. Arizona’s bullpen has been fantastic, especially in the late innings that demand the most pressure, and Lovullo gets a lot of credit utilizing them well.

The Diamondbacks biggest advantage is their bullpen.

The Invisible Man

Every post-season unexpected guys play like stars and stars shrink, nowhere to be seen.

Marcus Semien hasn’t played like the All-Star he is. The star 2nd baseman who in the last three seasons has missed one game, hit 100 home runs, batted .263 and slugged .482 has disappeared.

This October, the Rangers leadoff hitter has a .192 BA, .231 SLG, and 0 homers. Arizona has a lights out bullpen and great starting pitching, so if the Ranger bats that have carried him so far go quiet the pressure will mount on Semien to light a spark.

It seems like Arizona only starts eight guys, leaving first base empty. Christian Walker needs to wake up. During the regular season he led the team with 33 home runs and was 4th in WAR among all 1st baseman, but has struggled mightily in October.

Walker is hitting a frightening .179 and hit his lone home run against the Dodgers in the NLDS. If you play first base, you are expected to hit. If the Diamondbacks are going to win, they’ll need their home run leader to drive the ball.

Both teams need these guys to step up, it’s just a question if either will.

X-Factors

The running game could decide the World Series.

Star power doesn’t lead the Diamondbacks. They are a team that plays together. Arizona gets base hits, plays small ball and advances runners. Stealing bases has been a massive component to their success so far, stealing 16 bases in 19 attempts in October after stealing the second most bags all season.

In years past, Bochy relied on future hall-of-famer Buster Posey to limit the run game with the Giants. Bochy will need Jonah Heim to do the same.

Heim’s caught stealing percentage was 29% in the regular season, so his ability to throw out runners will be paramount. Simply put, if Heim can’t stop Arizona from swiping bags, the Diamondbacks opportunity to win their second title in franchise history grows.

Prediction

This matchup has a chance to be a classic. The other two lowest win percentage matchups in World Series history was in 2014 between the Giants over the Royals and in 1973 with the A’s over the Mets. Both went to Game 7.

Overall, this years refreshing championship is pretty close. The Rangers have all the experience and the superior offense, but the Diamondbacks grind out wins any way possible and have a suffocating bullpen that shortens the game.

I just think Bochy’s experience is too much with the Rangers roster for the Diamondbacks to overcome. This series will go seven games at the hands of a spirited effort from Lovullo’s team, but it will end in Bruce Bochy delivering the Rangers first championship.

Texas Rangers win the series 4-3.